Chargers mailbag: Philip Rivers timeline, Hunter Henry’s contract, and get excited about Tyrod Taylor

CARSON, CA - DECEMBER 15: Quarterback Philip Rivers #17 of the Los Angeles Chargers on the bench in the second half of the game against the Minnesota Vikings at Dignity Health Sports Park on December 15, 2019 in Carson, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
By Daniel Popper
Jan 23, 2020

It’s Chargers mailbag time.

Let’s dive in.

At his end-of-season press conference this month, general manager Tom Telesco said “there’s no doubt” he wants to have Philip Rivers’ contract situation settled by the start of the new league year, which is March 18. That could mean signing him to an extension or letting him leave. Either way, a decision needs be made by then so the Chargers know where they stand with the salary cap as free agency begins.

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Right now, the Chargers are the only team that can negotiate with Rivers. They could, in theory, sign him to an extension at any moment. And they technically maintain those exclusive negotiating rights until March 16, when the NFL allows teams to begin speaking with agents about players who are slated to become free agents when the new league year begins at 1 p.m. Pacific on March 18. This three-day stretch is referred to as the legal tampering window.

In reality, though, agents start gauging the markets for their clients when the NFL world descends on Indianapolis for the scouting combine, which runs from Feb. 23 to March 2 this year. Despite the Chargers having an inside track on negotiations with Rivers, I wouldn’t expect a deal to get done before the combine. That’s when Rivers and his camp will get their first genuine idea of what his market looks like outside of Los Angeles. He can use that as leverage in negotiations, especially if another team — say, the Bucs, Titans or Colts — is interested in bringing him in as a starter. If Rivers agrees to a deal with the Chargers before the combine, he could be sacrificing earnings. And he’s made it clear that he would consider playing for another team. So all signs point to him at the very least inquiring about what else is out there, even if it’s only to draw more money out of the Chargers.

Once Rivers and his agents gauge the market at the combine, the Chargers would be on the clock. If a deal is going to get done, I would expect it to happen sometime between March 2 and March 16. Of course, it could always happen earlier. But I don’t think that makes much sense for Rivers from a business perspective.

So I’m probably in the minority here, but I don’t see Rivers’ move to Florida as some smoking gun that means he’s absolutely leaving the Chargers. He spends time in Florida during the offseason. He was there last year and worked out with Hunter Henry. It’s not totally shocking that he would move his family there, closer to where he grew up in Alabama, now that his playing days are winding down. Not all players actually live where their teams play. A lot of guys have temporary spots in whatever city their teams call home, and then offseason houses somewhere else that serve as base camps for their families.

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Now, the timing is obviously interesting. But think about it this way: If Rivers does return to the Chargers, how many years is he guaranteed to be there? No more than one, I would think. So why not get a jumpstart on the move and create some structure and stability during an uncertain time in his life?

If the Chargers do move on from Rivers, I don’t think that necessarily means they will go into rebuild mode. There could be viable free-agent options — Tom Brady and Cam Newton top that list. Or they could start Tyrod Taylor. The truth is, Telesco and head coach Anthony Lynn can’t really afford another losing season. The first year in SoFi Stadium has to be a success on the field. So even if they let Rivers walk, they have to put a winning product out there or risk losing their jobs. That’s why I don’t think they’ll cut ties with pricier older players, regardless of how the QB situation pans out. They need Russell Okung at left tackle. They need Melvin Ingram pass-rushing off the edge. They could part ways with Denzel Perryman and/or Thomas Davis, but those cuts would be more about performance and cap savings than anything related to looking to the future. Perryman is more likely to be cut out of those two linebackers.

The tight end market is kind of weird in that the best players aren’t being compensated appropriately. George Kittle is the best tight end in football, but as a 2017 fifth-round pick, he’s playing on an outrageously cheap contract that is one of the best deals in the league. Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz — the two best tight ends after Kittle — signed very comparable extensions a day apart in January 2016, and they’ve both outperformed their deals in the years since. Kelce’s extension has an average annual value of $9.3684 million; Ertz’s is $8.5 million. Both would make at least $10 million per year on the open market, but their current deals extend through 2021. Which brings us to Henry, who is slated to become a free agent in March.

Henry would probably be in line to make a lot more money if Kittle, Kelce and Ertz were making what they’re actually worth. The Packers’ Jimmy Graham is the highest-paid tight end in football right now at $10 million in average annual value. He had 447 receiving yards and three touchdowns this past season, which clearly indicates how bizarre this market is.

Still, there are contracts to look at for guidance. One is the extension Kyle Rudolph signed with the Vikings in June — four years, $36.1 million, and an AAV of $9.025 million, which ranks fourth at the position. Rudolph was coming off a year in which he caught 64 passes for 634 yards and four touchdowns. Henry finished 2019 with 55 catches for 652 yards and five TDs. You can see the similarities in production. Henry is a younger player, though, with a much higher ceiling, so that could factor into the deal. So could his injuries. Henry missed all of 2018 with a torn ACL and four games last season with a fractured knee. In the end, I expect a four-year deal for Henry somewhere between $34 million and $38 million in total value.

I’ll start with a statistic, because numbers are fun and instructive.

In the history of the league, only two players with at least 1,000 pass attempts have an interception rate below 1.5 percent: Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor.

The guy just doesn’t turn the ball over. And the Chargers lost so many games this past season because of Rivers’ turnovers. When you play in 11 one-possession games, protecting the ball could be the difference.

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That is the No. 1 reason why fans should at least be open to Taylor as a starter.

He’s also still very mobile and could help mask some of the deficiencies in pass-blocking. That’s a defining feature of the best teams in the league. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Deshaun Watson, Ryan Tannehill — all those guys can move around, avoid pressure and make plays on the run.

Taylor isn’t a perfect solution. But he makes sense as a bridge if the Chargers draft a QB in the first round.

The likelihood is low, but it’s certainly not impossible. I look back on what happened with the Jaguars in the first round last year. They needed loads of help on offense. They needed a starting right tackle. They needed a starting pass-catching tight end. From the outside looking in, drafting an offensive player at No. 7 overall was a no-brainer. And yet they took defensive end Josh Allen, even though the defensive line was perhaps the deepest position on their roster. That had everything to do with how the draft shook out. General manager Dave Caldwell and then-VP of football operations Tom Coughlin had Allen ranked as a top-five talent. They couldn’t pass him up at No. 7 even though tight end T.J. Hockenson fit more of a need.

Could that same thing happen with the Chargers? Absolutely. Any good GM is looking for great value, regardless of need. If you start drafting solely for need, you’re going to reach for a player and miss out on another potential star who dropped into your lap. That’s pretty much unavoidable.

Still, I think the Chargers can hit on both value and need by taking an offensive tackle at No. 6. There are enough good tackles at the top of the class to ensure they aren’t reaching. But I would only definitely go in that direction if the Chargers bring Rivers back or sign Tom Brady.

If they let Rivers walk and go with Taylor as the bridge starter, then they have more options. They could go OT. They could go QB. They could go defense — perhaps Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons. Taylor’s mobility would make addressing the offensive line in the first round less of an absolute necessity.

The Chargers understand that building a fan base is going to take time. They don’t expect to have full-fledged support in 2020. Or 2021. Or even 2022. But what does it look like in 2025? Or 2027, a full decade after the initial move? They have to wait until then to even begin to grasp how the fan base is developing. In reality, they won’t fully know until the next generation is old enough to buy tickets

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This will be a very, very long process. Any judgment on how “successful” the move to SoFi is must be reserved for years down the road. The hope is they will initially be able to draw in Angelenos who want to experience the new stadium. Those people will bring their kids. Those kids, from that formative experience, will start rooting for the Chargers. And then those kids will buy season tickets when they are old enough. But we’re talking about an entire generation coming of age. That doesn’t happen overnight. As such, any decision about rebranding shouldn’t — and most likely won’t — happen overnight, either.

For the top of round 2, it could be Utah State’s Jordan Love, Oregon’s Justin Herbert or Washington’s Jacob Eason. Later on, they could look at Georgia’s Jake Fromm, Washington State’s Anthony Gordon or Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts.

Good news, Patrick! I wrote a four-step plan for fixing the offensive line earlier this month. Enjoy.

Assuming Rivers is the QB in 2020…

Round 1: OT
Round 2: QB
Round 3: CB
Round 4: WR
Round 5: IOL
Round 6: NT
Round 7: RB

I expect significant improvement from Jerry Tillery in his second season. As I’ve pointed out many times before, Tillery missed the entirety of the spring program and the first week of training camp because of the shoulder surgery he underwent in March. That matters for a rookie. Any missed time is going to set you back. And I think we saw a player who could have used that extra practice time, as he struggled primarily with his technique against double teams during the regular season. Tillery has all the physical tools to be a dominant three-technique defensive lineman, especially as a pass-rusher. He needs to put the work in this offseason, and I believe he’ll do that.

Nasir Adderley still needs to find his role, something he couldn’t do in 2019 as he was in and out of practice with a lingering hamstring injury that eventually put him on IR. Where that role will be remains to be seen. He won’t fit in as a starting safety with those spots locked down by Derwin James and Rayshawn Jenkins. But what about as a dime linebacker? Or a nickel corner? That’s where I think he’ll carve out his role, as one of the extra defensive backs in sub packages. Of course, he has to earn it. And to do that, he has to stay on the field.

1. Al pastor
2. Carnitas
3. Carne asada
4. Shrimp
5. Chorizo
6. Chicken
7. Tripa
8. Lengua
9. Fried fish
10. Ground beef
RESPECT MY DECISION!!!!!

(Top photo of Philip Rivers: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty Images)

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Daniel Popper

Daniel Popper is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Los Angeles Chargers. He previously covered the Jacksonville Jaguars for The Athletic after following the New York Jets for the New York Daily News, where he spent three years writing, reporting and podcasting about local pro sports. Follow Daniel on Twitter @danielrpopper