If you missed last week’s column, you can check it out here; pretty much all of the information remains relevant. As for this week?
- Sam Darnold definitely has a new favorite target in NY.
- There’s a sleeper in Chicago nobody’s talking about but our beat writer likes a lot.
- Noah Fant progress report in Denver!
- Our Miami writer opines on what the offense may look like under new OC Chad O’Shea.
- Some goal-line love for Alexander Mattison.
…and plenty more.
Let’s jump in!
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Jeff Zrebiec (columns), @jeffzrebiec
Q: When does the coaching staff expect Marquise Brown to be up to speed?
A: The Ravens clearly have a plan for Brown, but they’re not sharing exactly what it is. He’s ramped up his activity level pretty much every week. However, he really just started participating fully in practice and he’s still getting periodic days off. I think the Ravens are approaching it with an understanding that they may not see the best of Brown until the second half of the season. That doesn’t mean he can’t and won’t help them early. Brown looks plenty fast in practice. But in terms of learning the offense, dealing with the physicality he’s going to face, knocking off the rust and bouncing back after each practice, Brown has a ways to go.
BUFFALO BILLS
Matthew Fairburn (columns), @MatthewFairburn and Joe Buscaglia (columns), @JoeBuscaglia
Q: Does rookie tight end Tommy Sweeney really have a chance to have a role in the offense this season?
A: Once everyone is healthy, Sweeney’s role in the offense is going to diminish. With Tyler Kroft still rehabbing his foot injury and Dawson Knox only recently returning from a hamstring injury, Sweeney could have a game or two of decent usage to start the season. But he’s not the first one Allen is going to be looking for in the passing game even when he is getting starter’s reps. (Matthew Fairburn)
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A: Sweeney’s best chance at success is early in the season while Tyler Kroft continues rehabbing his foot injury, and while the Bills try to get third-round pick Dawson Knox up to speed with the offense. Knox just returned from a hamstring injury, but showed a good rapport with quarterback Josh Allen during the spring workouts. As soon as one or both of Kroft and Knox return to the lineup, that all but vanquishes Sweeney’s fantasy value and potential big role in Buffalo. (Joe Buscaglia)
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Joseph Person (columns), @josephperson
Q: The Panthers have stated that they want to take goal line carries away from Christian McCaffrey — is that true ? And if so, who will get those carries?
A: I’m not sure Norv Turner will be able to help himself when it comes to Christian McCaffrey — at the goal line or elsewhere. Yes, the Panthers want to reduce McCaffrey’s workload, but I think they’ll pick their spots to give him a rest on plays when he’s a decoy or being asked to pass-protect. If they do cut back on McCaffrey’s goal line carries, that just means more work for Cam Newton — who’s always a threat in short-yardage anyway. Also, Newton likes to look for TE Greg Olsen on play-action near the goal line, so that could be another option.
CHICAGO BEARS
Kevin Fishbain (columns), @kFishbain
Q: What’s a reasonable outlook for Taylor Gabriel this season?
A: I actually think Gabriel is being overlooked, especially by the fantasy community. He averaged 4.2 receptions per game last season and wide receivers coach Mike Furrey has been vocal about how much better Gabriel has been this summer because the veteran receiver has a better grasp of the offense and his role within it. It may take some time before Anthony Miller is that “breakout player” everyone is expecting because of his current ankle injury. Too often, Gabriel got stuffed on WR screens in 2018, but he should be more efficient in 2019. Still no better than a WR3 or flex player, but he’s got some sleeper potential, especially if Mitch Trubisky improves his deep ball.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Jay Morrison (columns), @JayMorrisonATH
Q: Any updates on A.J. Green’s status and how has John Ross looked in camp?
A: There is no updated timetable for Green since head coach Zac Taylor confirmed the receiver would miss multiple regular-seson games. He is still rolling around on a knee scooter and has yet to begin on-field rehab work. Week 3 would still seem to be best-case scenario for a return.
As for Ross, Sunday marked the first time he has practiced since camp began July 27. He was in for 8-10 plays, went full speed, reported no issues and was back at it Monday. The team expects him to be ready for the season opener at Seattle.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Zac Jackson (columns), @AkronJackson
Q: Jarvis Landry’s looks seemed to disappear when Baker took over last season; is there a plan to get those two going this year ?
A: Landry is going to be an important part of this offense. The Browns will line him up all over the formation, and Landry should be able to exploit mismatches with defenses paying extra attention to Odell Beckham Jr. He won’t catch seven or eight passes every Sunday as he’s done in previous years, but he’s been building chemistry with Mayfield and is going to move the chains.
[Check out The Athletic’s fantasy football draft kit for all your draft-day needs]
DETROIT LIONS
Chris Burke (columns), @ChrisBurkeNFL
Q: If Kerryon Johnson can stay on the field what is a realistic amount of carries for him this season? He has moved up to the second round of fantasy drafts.
A: I’d probably set the absolute ceiling right around the 250-260 mark, which would put him at about 16 per game. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him check in lower than that, when we factor in that a) the Lions will want him to be part of the passing attack and b) they still would prefer to cap him at between 15 and 20 total touches per game — he was right at 15 before his injury last season. They might go well above that number on occasion, if they see an edge up front or are trying to grind out a win, but I wouldn’t expect many (any?) 25- or 30-carry days. They’re going to use their backfield rotation, both to keep Johnson fresh and because they think they’ve built some depth there.
DENVER BRONCOS
Nicki Jhabvala (columns), @NickiJhabvala
Q: How has rookie tight end Noah Fant looked in camp and will he be a fantasy relevant player?
A: Fant has looked overwhelmed in camp, as many rookies do, especially in this offense. Right now he’s dealing with a minor ankle sprain, but he should be fine by the start of the regular season. Given how much value offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello places on tight ends in his system, Fant should be a relevant fantasy player. He can take the top off defenses with a rare speed for a player his size, and he’s got a quarterback who has no problem getting him the ball downfield. Year 1 for Fant, however, could be more of a trial by fire as gets acclimated to the speed of the game and the system. His true capabilities may show in Year 2 and beyond.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Matt Schneidman (columns), @MattSchneidman
Q: Davante Adams is clearly the top option in the passing game. Who do you think the second option for Aaron Rodges will be: Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, or someone else.
A: Even though he hasn’t stood out during camp, I think Valdes-Scantling will be Rodgers’ No. 2 target. The other team’s best outside cornerback will always be on Adams, and right now Valdes-Scantling is the other starting outside receiver, with Allison operating out of the slot. Valdes-Scantling averaged 15.3 yards per reception last year on 38 catches, and the Packers expect a big Year 2 jump from the South Florida product.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Aaron Reiss (columns), @aaronjreiss
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Zak Keefer (columns), @zkeefer
(Note: Zak answered this question before Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement, obviously. We have him lined up for Podcast by Committee on Tuesday afternoon and we’ll drop the transcript of the show on the site after we record. For now, this still has some relevance with the Brissett/Hilton connection)
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Q: If Andrew Luck can’t go to start the regular season, should fantasy owners worry about low production from T.Y. Hilton to start the season or can Jacoby Brissett get the job done?
A: In a word: yes. While Hilton has looked phenomenal since training camp kicked off in late July — he was often the best player on the field — he won’t be the same player without Luck throwing him the ball. For reference, his receiving yards dove from a league-best 1,448 in 2016, with Luck under center, to just 966 in 2017 while Luck missed the season and Brissett made 15 starts. The offense will certainly be better under Frank Reich, but Hilton’s most lethal with Luck on the field.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Phillip Heilman (columns), @phillip_heilman
Q: Leonard Fournette appeared to be in the doghouse last season. How are things going with him and the organization so far this year? Should Ryquell Armstead be on fantasy rosters?
A: It’s been a fairly tranquil preseason for Leonard Fournette, whose only public spat came with a fan who accepted his jersey as a gift and apparently tried to sell it online. Of course, that serenity is subject to change at literally any time. In his only action of the preseason, Fournette had seven carries for 27 yards Thursday night in Miami. He was targeted three times in four series by quarterback Nick Foles, further strengthening the belief he will be heavily involved in the passing game. Could Fournette total 400-500 receiving yards in a healthy season? It’s reasonable. It’s also conceivable Fournette could be nursing an injury by the start of October, which makes Ryquell Armstead a necessary bench option for Fournette owners.
In the event of an injury to Fournette, Armstead and veteran Alfred Blue would split carries. But Armstead’s upside makes him the more intriguing addition.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
Vincent Bonsignore (columns), @VinnyBonsignore
Q: Last year Todd Gurley was the top pick in fantasy drafts, this year he can fall all the way to the third round. Are fantasy owners overly concerned about Gurley’s knee?
A: It’s not so much the status of the knee that should be concerning, it’s the Rams plan to manage Gurley’s workload that should be a bit worrisome. Gurley has looked healthy, active and explosive throughout camp. For now, anyway, the knee appears fine. The Rams, though, want to keep it that way and have a plan in place they hope will ensure he’s at optimal form come December and January. That likely includes monitoring and managing his touch and snap count, especially through the first part of the season, in order to avoid any over use that might adversely impact him later in the season. By slowing down his workload, the question becomes how much will that affect his numbers? You have to figure there will be some sort of reduction in his fantasy value as a result.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Chris Perkins (columns), @chrisperk
Q: How big of a role in the passing game will Dolphins running backs have considering their new offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea came from the Patriots system ?
A: Good question. As a unit the running backs should play a significant role in the passing game. Individually, it’s unclear how many receptions each running back will have because we haven’t seen Kalen Ballage and Kenyan Drake healthy and playing together in pads (and that’s true for the entire starting offense).
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My guess is the top two running backs combine for around 70 receptions. I’m unclear how that’s distributed between Ballage and Drake. Taking a guess right now I’d say Drake gets 45 receptions and Ballage gets 25.
We know O’Shea likes to use his running backs in the passing game. James White had 87 receptions last year.
In Miami’s case, Drake had 53 receptions last year, the most among running backs, and Ballage had nine. For the record, Frank Gore was second among running backs with 12 receptions.
The big problem this year is we have no idea how Miami’s passing offense will treat the guys who need the ball in open space —Drake and wide receivers Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant. They haven’t been healthy and playing together.
I’m thinking when we see Drake on the field in passing situations it’s as a receiver but when we see Ballage it could be more as a pass protector/dump-off receiver.
That’s why I think Drake will have more receptions even though Ballage might have more snaps.
Plus, Drake has an established reputation as a big-play guy.
But again, selecting a number of receptions for each running back is very tough without seeing the offense with its full complement of personnel, especially that short and mid-range passing game.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Chad Graff (columns), @ChadGraff
Q: Alexander Mattison has turned heads in training camp, but would it be correct to say that Mattison is no more than Dalvin Cook’s backup?
A: That’s mostly correct with one important distinction. What the Vikings loved most when they drafted Mattison in the third round is his play in short-yardage situations. Last season, the Vikings relied on Latavius Murray for that. But this season, every indication is that Mattison will get plenty of opportunities on third-and-short and — more importantly for fantasy — at the goal line. So even if Mattison is limited in the number of carries he gets, he could vulture some touchdowns from Cook.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Nick Underhill (columns), @Nick_Underhill
Q: Fantasy owners have been chasing Josh Gordon’s 2013 season for 6 years now. What’s a realistic 2019 stat line for Gordon?
A: To answer this question you have to know how many games he’s going to play. I can’t make a guess on how long Gordon is going to outrun his demons. As a fellow human, I hope he makes it all 16 games, through the playoffs and then right on through the rest of his life. So, if he does that, he should have more than 1,000 yards, 65 receptions and six touchdowns. The opportunity will be there for him to have a huge season, especially with Rob Gronkowski gone. But it has nothing to do with how well Gordon plays football or his fit in the offense. That will take care of itself if he’s on the field. The question is if he will be out there.I don’t think anyone can make an accurate guess on that is going to play out.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Katherine Terrell (columns), @Kat_Terrell
Q: Last season’s 68 catches on 101 targets were career highs for Jared Cook, can he top those numbers this season?
A: The Saints haven’t had a tight end like Cook since Jimmy Graham, and Graham routinely blew past those numbers as a Saint. There’s no doubt the Saints would like to use Cook in the same way. The only thing that could possibly hold him back is his age — Cook is 32 at a position that tends to get players hurt. While there could certainly be a dropoff one day, he hasn’t missed many games over the course of his career. And without any top-tier talent behind Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Cook, expect them to try to get him the ball often.
NEW YORK GIANTS
Dan Duggan (columns), @DDuggan21
Q: No one ever mentions the fact that Sterling Shepard was a top 30 wide receiver in 2018. He is going for a steal in fantasy drafts. Will Shepard be on the field for Week 1 in Dallas?
A: Yes, all signs point to Shepard being ready for Week 1. If there was a silver lining to his broken thumb it’s that it happened in the first practice of training camp, which gave him more than six weeks to recover. The Giants have surprisingly worked Shepard in team drills throughout camp, so there shouldn’t be any concerns about rust even though he hasn’t played in the preseason. With Odell Beckham Jr. in Cleveland and Golden Tate suspended for the first four games, Shepard enters the season as the Giants’ unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver.
NEW YORK JETS
Connor Hughes (columns), @Connor_J_Hughes
Q: Does Sam Darnold have a favorite target yet?
A: Oh yes. It’s slot receiver Jamison Crowder. The two, dating back to the first time they stepped on the field together for OTAs, have had instant chemistry. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Crowder catch 90-plus balls this year, potentially 100-plus. That’s how much Darnold likes his guy. He’s both his safety valve, and a player they want to get involved in the offense. Crowder’s show an interesting ability to stretch the field, too. That’s something he didn’t do much in Washington.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Vic Tafur (columns), @VicTafur
Q: What are realistic expectations for rookie running back Josh Jacobs ?
A: 1,000 yards rushing and 500 receiving. We don’t know how he will hold up to a lot of use, but he will get it. Jon Gruden also likes Jalen Richard, Doug Martin and DeAndre Washington, but he has always wanted a three-down back. Plus, I think Jacobs will get the goal-line work and has the Marcus Allen leap over the middle perfected.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Mark Kaboly (columns), @MarkKaboly
Q: Fantasy owners think Vance McDonald is in for a big season. Are they correct in that thinking?
A: Depending on what you view as a big season? If you were happy with McDonald’s numbers last year then — 50/610/4 — then you will be happy with him this year. Even though it may seem like a no-brainer that his numbers will increase this year significantly because the lack of established targets for Ben Roethlisberger, that might not be the case. Offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner insists that McDonald’s snap count will not drastically increase from the 564 number of a year ago. That’s likely because the lack of depth at the position is so concerning that they don’t want to risk injury — something McDonald has battled over his career — that would prevent him from playing 16 games. His targets and snaps should have an uptick in them but his stats won’t rival some of the top tight ends in the league.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
Matt Barrows (columns), @mattbarrows
Q: Can you see Kyle Shanhan benching Jimmy Garoppolo at some point this season?
A: Garoppolo would have to be pretty awful to get the hook. He’s got a long leash due to A.) the massive investment the 49ers have in him and B.) the fact that he’s coming off an ACL tear. Shanahan knows his quarterback hasn’t played a full game since Sept. 23 and will give him time to find his rhythm. But if Garoppolo struggles over multiple games like he did Monday against Denver, then Shanahan will have to go to his No. 2. Who is that? The guess is that it’s Nick Mullens, but Shanahan said he’s unlikely to reveal the identity of Garoppolo’s backup until cut-down day.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Michael-Shawn Dugar (columns), @MikeDugar
Q: Tyler Lockett was extremely efficient last season — he caught 10 touchdown passes but he only had 57 receptions. Now that he is the guy in the passing game can he remain as efficient or will his numbers be more volume based?
A: Tyler Lockett won’t be as efficient as he was in 2018 because asking him to have a second straight year with a perfect passer rating when targeted is just unfair. His overall numbers should be better, though. Something north of 90 or so targets sounds about right, with closer to 70 or 80 catches in a 1,000-yard season. Because Seattle is set on having a run-first offense it’s hard to imagine Lockett having a crazy year with 100-plus catches and 1,300 yards, even if he’s talented enough to do so and he’s got one of the best QBs in the league.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Greg Auman (columns), @GregAuman
Q: Chris Godwin receptions over/under 85 ?
A: Ooh. If you said “80” as the mark, I’d be really conflicted. I’ll take the under here, but when Bruce Arians says Godwin is close to a “100-catch guy,” he means it. He’ll be a strong No. 2 to Mike Evans, and has two nice moves on quick screens in the preseason, one for a touchdown. Right around 82 catches for maybe 1,100 yards, eight TDs, that’s what it feels like. He’s going crazy high in drafts for a second receiver (like WR20 or so), but he’ll outperform a number of No. 1s when it’s all said and done.
TENNESSEE TITANS
John Glennon (columns), @glennonsports
Q: Will Corey Davis finally have the breakout season fantasy owners have been looking for?
A: I think Davis should be able to equal or better his solid numbers from last year — 65 catches, 891 yards and four touchdowns. But I’m not sure he’s going to make a huge jump, the kind that will have fantasy owners salivating. A few reasons why I’m cautious: First, the Titans ran the ball
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51% percent of the time last season — the second-highest percentage in the league — and if Derrick Henry begins 2019 the way he finished 2018, we could see a similar percentage this season. Second, keep in mind that Pro Bowl tight end Delanie Walker returns after missing almost all of last season, and we should expect him to catch 50-60 passes if he stays healthy. Those numbers may well chip away at Davis’ totals. Finally, the Titans added slot receiver extraordinaire Adam Humphries during the offseason. Pencil Humphries in for plenty of catches as well, which, again, could remove some potential Davis catches from the equation.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Ben Standig (columns), @BenStandig
Q: Will Derrius Guice take over as the lead back at some point this season?
A: Yes, but that might be a little more than a lot. Guice looked sharp in his preseason debut with his cuts and power. All indications have him involved in the passing game, and Guice has the build for a goal-line work. Even if Washington takes it easy early as Guice builds up his stamina, the upside is evident.
Of course, Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson are part of the equation for head coach Jay Gruden. Those two offer a true inside-outside combination. That means there’s always a threat to Guice’s workload as a runner or receiver. Therefore, the ceiling for Guice’s fantasy numbers is a bit lower than desired and that’s before we consider the Trent Williams holdout and the likelihood that rookie Dwayne Haskins eventually enters the starting lineup. That Guice can handle all the roles to some degree makes him the Redskins RB worth owning, and worthy of excitement. There’s just a bunch of variables that, for now, keeps the idea of him soaring in check.
(Top photo: Mark Brown/Getty Images)