OpenAI – Binary decision

Another $40bn found down the back of the sofa. Another $40bn to spend on compute will ensure that OpenAI does not have to become efficient like its Chinese competitors meaning that when the money runs out, it is likely to be caught out resulting in it being forced to sell itself to a rich competitor or one of its backers....

China vs. USA – Foundation Collapse

China will only accelerate what is already in progress. It appears that it is now Chinese government policy to flood the open-source community with AI models which to me looks like an attempt to turn foundation models into solar panels which China can then dominate by making them cheaper than anyone else. In solar panels, China undercut everyone else on...

Artificial Intelligence – The Dynamo Effect

Dynamo is CUDA for inference. Meta’s failure to acquire FuriosaAI is a sign that the focus of AI is moving towards inference where rival chip companies have a better chance of competing against the incumbent, but as usual, Nvidia has a fix for that. FuriosaAI is a Korean chip company that offers data centre chips for inference which would have...

China AI – The Efficiency Game

China plucks the low-hanging fruit Efficiency is spreading like wildfire through the Chinese AI industry indicating that the edge that the US has enjoyed is not as large as many thought, but also indicating that the techniques being employed may be easier than I thought to replicate. This is a theme RFM has been keeping an eye on for a...

GTC Day 3 – Quantum Apology Tour

Jensen was the coroner, not the murderer. After single-handedly crashing the valuations of the publicly listed quantum computing companies at CES 2025, Jensen Huang graciously hosted a session at GTC giving the quantum companies the opportunity to prove him wrong. The problem is that he was right and all he did in January was point out the obvious fact that...

Nvidia & Samsung – GTC Day 2

Samsung’s fate is bound up with Nvidia GTC Update: Nvidia Dynamo – the most critical launch of 2025.  GTC 2025 is in full swing and as more details emerge about Dynamo, it is clear to me that this is by far Nvidia’s most important launch of 2025. Dynamo is an operating system for a data centre that is producing tokens...

Nvidia GTC 2025 – Spread Betting

Nvidia is spreading its bets wide and early.   Another confident keynote from Jensen Huang where technical slip-ups were part of the show and where the best was saved for last. Nvidia is leveraging its dominant position in AI training to move quickly into nascent adjacent markets such that when they start to develop, Nvidia will already be the go-to...

Baidu AI – Keeping Up Appearances

Baidu joins the efficiency game.  Keen to catch up in the China AI game, Baidu has launched two newer and cheaper models, but it is not clear whether Baidu is offering further innovation on efficiency or just a cheaper price to stem market share loss to its rivals. Baidu has released the latest version of its foundation model ERNIE and...

Intel – Anywhere to Go?

Mr Tan’s options already seem very limited.  The recruitment of Lip-Bu Tan as the new CEO of Intel should come with an expectation of a strategic shift that increases the probability of the company being broken up but as this cannot be done for some time, one wonders how the new CEO will do anything that changes Intel’s fortunes. Lip-Bu...

AI Robotics – Moravec is Alive!

The domestic house bot is still a pipe dream.  I do not doubt that there is a very large market opportunity to sell robots that can do the housework and many other things but the problem is still so large, that no one is going to get there anytime soon regardless of the hubris and hype being pushed by the...